We're off to Tauranga/the Mount tomorrow for the BIG EVENT.
My training's been OK this year, but probably a little down overall from last year- it seems the hectic pace of lawyering in Auckland may have worked for me! I'm also a little bit fat, much as I'd like to deny it. And my traditional race benchmarks have been, to be honest, a bit crap. So there's every reason to feel a little pessimistic about Tauranga, and I do.
But not TOO pessimistic. Just because I don't think I'll be quite doing "what I'm capable of" (actually, that's probably exactly what I'll do.....) doesn't mean I don't feel like I have a solid performance in me. I've been pretty open about the fact that doing Tauranga is about pretty much one thing- sub 6. And I've done enough that, even though sub 6 would be a 17 minute improvement on my best half ironman so far and a 29 minute improvement on my last, sub 6 should pretty much be cake. I'll be honest here- I'll be gutted with a finishing time that doesn't start with a 5.
Here are some goals/predictions:
Swim: anything under 40 is fine by me, but under 38 would be preferable, and a sub 37 would be awesome. If I could exit and get out on the bike by 41:00, I'd be chuffed.
Bike: I really, really, really, really want to break 3 hours, and I know I SHOULD be able to. Believing I can is a whole nother story. I'm still not riding the way I feel I should be, and I only just averaged 30kph over 40km at Tinman. Still, I'm hanging out for a 2:59:xx, and I'll be disappointed with anything over 3:05 (...aside from punctures... knock wood). 3:00 plus 40 plus 2:30 for transitions would give me nearly 2:20 for the run...
Run: I really, really, really, really want to break 2:00 in the run. I mean REALLY. But the Mount Track is actually kinda hard. And I kinda want to have nothing left at ALL after my epic 2:4x bike, so 2:05 to 2:10 would be OK. My previous half times are 2:13, 2:06 and 2:04, on quite tough but possibly short courses, so a sub 2:00 would be pushing it, but isn't totally unrealistic.
Based on these times, I'll most likely finish somewhere between 5:40 and 5:55. And that's probably my happy zone. Anything sub 5:40 and I'll be whooping for joy.
I'll be computer free for the next few days, but look out for twitter updates (NOT during the race this time, at least not from me!)